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Lessons from The Magnificent Seven Thumbnail

Lessons from The Magnificent Seven

Investing

With US large company stocks up 16.9% through the middle of 2023, this has been an unusual period. Looking back through stock market history, we see plenty of six-month periods with performance in this range, so this is not that unusual. What is unusual is that just seven stocks drove more than 75% of this performance. These stocks include Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Apple, Meta (Facebook), Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla. Some are calling these stocks “The Magnificent Seven.”


You might know The Magnificent Seven as the 1960 Western film starring Yul Brynner, Steve McQueen, Charles Bronson, Robert Vaughn, Brad Dexter, James Coburn, and Horst Buchholz, and directed by John Sturges. The story is familiar: Helpless villagers are being terrorized by bandits and a handful of outcasts band together to protect them.

I know the movie primarily as the remake of one of my favorites, Akira Kurosawa's 1954 classic film, Seven Samurai.

This plot has been duplicated not only in a Western form (both of The Magnificent Seven movies) but also in several other formats: Gladiators (The Seven Magnificent Gladiators), Sci-Fi (Battle Beyond the Stars), Comedy (The Three Amigos) and even as a children’s movie (A Bug's Life).

So what does a Samurai/Western/Sci-Fi/Kids’ movie have in common with what we see in the investment world today? We are early in the plot, but I believe we start with some good parallels between the movie plot and these seven stocks:

  • We begin with a terrorized village. I don’t need to remind you that the stock and bond markets ended 2022 pretty badly beaten. A standard balanced portfolio ended the year down 17%. Inflation, interest rate hikes, and recession fears were the “bandits” who had no signs of stopping their harassment.
  • An unlikely group steps up to help. Growth stocks ended 2022 beaten up more than most: Alphabet lost 29%, Amazon fell 50%, Apple dropped 26%, Meta dove 64%, Microsoft gave back 28%, Nvidia tumbled 50%, and Tesla tanked 65%. Are these the “heroes” we are looking for?
  • The group shows the village their skills. Despite all doubts, we’ve seen a significant turnaround in growth stocks, mainly sparked by huge innovations in the world of Artificial Intelligence (AI). These seven stocks have rocketed, and because they are bigger companies, this has benefited the overall market. If we owned all US stocks equally, this year’s gains would be closer to 7% (not 16.9%). Hurray for our heroes!


Today, we are at the intermission in the plot. If the real world unfolds like these movies, what might happen after the bathroom break? 

  • The bandits regroup and threaten more mayhem. With inflation rates back in the 3% range, the Fed talking about pausing/halting interest rate hikes, and recession fears on the back burner, it looks like clear sailing for the stock markets. When investing, it’s not the things we see coming that create the most damage, it’s the things we don’t see coming. We never know what’s ahead, so it’s not a good idea to ever leave the village gates wide open.
  • The heroes realize they cannot do this on their own. These “magnificent” companies have led the market to higher highs, but I’m skeptical they will be able to do this for years to come. AI will definitely benefit these companies, but AI will benefit (and disrupt) many industries, companies, and stocks. 
  • The villagers step up to help the heroes hold off the bandits. We do not know what the future will bring for the stock and bond markets, that’s why we diversify. Even if the recent leadership slows or falters, we have support. International, emerging market, and US value stocks do not look overvalued and look ready to take on the battle. The villagers can come to the rescue!
  • Sadly, there are casualties along the way. In the movie, although victorious, four of the Magnificent Seven do not survive the final battle. While I’m not expecting any of these seven companies to “die,” it’s very difficult for the world’s largest companies to top the list over any 10-year period. It’s hard to imagine that Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, etc. will not continue to dominate, but history tells us otherwise. If we look back just ten years ago, we see six of the world’s largest companies are no longer in the top ten – this is true over almost any ten years and will probably be true ten years from now. There are always new heroes stepping up.

Real life rarely models the movies, but I’m looking forward to seeing how this movie ends.